Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar’s prediction of imminent US decapitation strikes on Iran complicates ceasefire prospects, with Trump’s end of military operations against Iran by March 31 sitting at 0% ...
DeepSeek has delayed its V4 model release to integrate with China’s domestic chip ecosystem, and the market for “Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?” sits at 15% YES....
Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar warns of rising nuclear strike risks as U.S.-Iran talks collapse. The odds for a nuclear deal by April 30 have dropped to 2.6% YES, down from 7% yesterday. With talks dead�...
Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is projected to lose seats in the May 7 UK local and regional elections. The market on Starmer being ousted by December 31, 2026, has jumped to 72% . The June 30, 2026 ...
Iran broadcast footage from inside the seized vessel Epaminondas, and the Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by May 31 is expected to drop, with a potential 15% move. Market�...
Macron offered full support to Trump after an armed attack on the US President. The US-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26 market sits at 0.3% YES, down from 9% yesterday. Macron’s endorsement co...
Iranian lawmaker Fadahossein Maleki has suggested preemptive strikes against the US are possible. The Polymarket contract on the Iranian regime falling by June 30 has moved to 8.5% YES, up from 8% �...
The Iranian Parliament Vice President refused to restore normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz, and the odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 dropped to 2.6% YES, down from 10% just 24 hour�...
Iran’s Intelligence Ministry arrested four individuals linked to a shooting at a pro-government event in Kerman. The market for crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 trades at 1.4% YES. ...
The US cancelled envoy travel to Pakistan, marking a pivot from diplomacy to pressure on Iran. The odds of a diplomatic meeting by April 30 now sit at 0.9% YES, down from 22% a week ago. Market re�...